Sat, Oct 11, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 07 | 19 | 124 |
| STL | 29 | 219 | 011 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48STLJoakim LindstromAssists: Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:44STLDavid BackesPPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 3:12STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 7:10STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.16 xG0–4
- P3 15:47CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:22STLChris Porter: Interference2 min
- P1 8:06STLIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:06CGYLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:06CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:49CGYDeryk Engelland: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:25CGYDeryk Engelland: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:28STLDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:14STLRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:14CGYBrian McGrattan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:15STLPaul Stastny: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:13STLPaul Stastny: Interference2 min
- P3 6:18CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P3 10:48STLT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:30STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 13:30CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:06STLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:15CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRaymond – Colborne – Gaudreau7:00
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Glencross – Byron – Backlund3:28
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Glencross – Backlund – Bouma5:47
xG 0.02–0.22 (10%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – Bouma – Monahan3:00
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie12:04
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell3:26
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Engelland – Smid4:42
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLindstrom – Steen – Stastny9:07
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Reaves7:24
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ott – Backes – Oshie10:22
xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz5:31
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Shattenkirk11:45
xG 0.77–0.16 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo2:33
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Leopold – Cole2:00
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).