Sat, Oct 11, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 2, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 210 | 09 | 04 | 223 |
| CHI | 217 | 011 | 419 | 647 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brandon Saad · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 2:52CHIDuncan KeithUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 7:17BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P1 18:40BUFTyler EnnisSHAssists: Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 5:58CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Andrew Shaw, Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 10:03CHIMarian HossaSHAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 13:16CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 17:23CHIDaniel CarcilloAssists: Brandon Saad · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:29BUFAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min
- P1 17:37BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:56BUFAndre Benoit: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:03CHIBryan Bickell: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:10CHIBrandon Saad: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:27BUFTyler Myers: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:05CHIDaniel Carcillo: Interference2 min
- P3 18:37CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Foligno – Reinhart11:59
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Moulson – Stafford – Ennis9:43
xG 0.38–0.46 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- McCormick – Mitchell – Deslauriers5:15
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Gionta – Hodgson – Girgensons10:23
xG 0.07–0.86 (8%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Weber – Myers2:20
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Weber – Ristolainen11:30
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Gorges – Myers14:27
xG 0.47–0.73 (39%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Shaw – Saad11:07
xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews10:17
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Carcillo – Morin – Kruger6:23
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Bickell – Smith8:36
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk12:10
xG 0.68–0.03 (96%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook16:23
xG 0.91–0.57 (62%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson2:43
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).