Sat, Oct 11, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Winnipeg Jets 0, San Jose Sharks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 03 | 013 | 014 | 030 |
| SJS | 215 | 111 | 00 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 5:12SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 19:31SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Matt Nieto, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:34WPGZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:06WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 7:51WPGMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:33SJSAdam Burish: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 15:43WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:53SJSJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:14WPGAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:55WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
- P3 8:03WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:24WPGDustin Byfuglien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:24WPGDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:33WPGZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:33SJSScott Hannan: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Halischuk – Lowry6:35
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Galiardi5:32
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik10:04
xG 0.65–0.83 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Postma7:39
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba6:11
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian9:26
xG 0.65–0.67 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Nieto7:04
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Wingels – McGinn – Tierney6:39
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Burish – Brown – Desjardins3:48
xG 0.06–0.34 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl7:58
xG 0.48–1.27 (27%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Mueller12:16
xG 0.93–0.99 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Hannan – Demers7:57
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hannan – Braun2:09
xG 0.04–0.31 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).