Sun, Oct 12, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 111 | 519 | 06 | 636 |
| NYR | 111 | 112 | 115 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:45TORCody FransonPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:22NYRRick NashAssists: Martin St. Louis, Marc Staal · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 5:19TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 7:50TORNazem KadriAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Daniel Winnik · Snap, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 9:43TORJames van RiemsdykSHGWGAssists: Leo Komarov · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 13:26NYRLee StempniakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–2
- P2 14:25TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
- P2 15:13TORDavid ClarksonAssists: Stuart Percy, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.30 xG6–2
- P3 14:19NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Chris Kreider, Lee Stempniak · Slap, 0.04 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:28NYRDominic Moore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:10NYRMarc Staal: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:55NYRMatt Hunwick: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:59TORStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:59NYRDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:34TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00St. Louis won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Santorelli – Komarov10:14
xG 1.02–0.76 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Lupul – Winnik – Kadri14:41
xG 0.39–0.45 (47%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:14
xG 0.46–0.87 (35%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Holland – Panik – Kozun4:54
xG 0.06–0.75 (8%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Percy15:46
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Polak – Rielly2:07
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Robidas – Phaneuf18:45
xG 0.92–1.27 (42%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Hayes – Duclair4:07
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Miller5:59
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Moore – Hagelin – Fast4:14
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Fast4:58
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal16:20
xG 1.33–0.38 (78%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Klein – Moore2:07
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh13:43
xG 0.97–0.77 (56%)attempts 18–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).