Sun, Oct 12, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Winnipeg Jets 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 114 | 08 | 130 |
| LAK | 212 | 27 | 012 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:18LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 10:58LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–2
- P2 2:03LAKTanner PearsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 16:42LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–4
- P2 17:47WPGBryan LittleAssists: Michael Frolik, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:14LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:14WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:10WPGZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:38WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 4:22LAKDwight King: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:12LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:01WPGBlake Wheeler: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:01LAKRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:01WPGBlake Wheeler: Instigator2 min
- P2 15:01WPGBlake Wheeler: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 15:01LAKRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:55LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:55WPGJim Slater: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:01WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Thorburn – Perreault – Lowry3:22
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Slater – Galiardi – Peluso6:50
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Frolik – Lowry – Scheifele2:35
xG 0.02–0.12 (11%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik9:08
xG 0.60–0.79 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Postma2:15
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Pardy – Trouba4:28
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian12:48
xG 0.68–0.76 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Pearson8:10
xG 0.65–0.12 (85%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Gaborik – Williams – Kopitar11:59
xG 0.93–0.48 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Richards – Clifford – Nolan9:08
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Stoll – Brown – King12:18
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb15:32
xG 1.12–0.50 (69%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Greene – Martinez12:41
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Regehr – Voynov15:21
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).