Mon, Oct 13, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Colorado Avalanche 2, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 111 | 19 | 230 |
| BOS | 010 | 17 | 011 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:28COLJamie McGinnAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 7:50BOSLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 19:59COLDaniel BrièreGWGAssists: Jan Hejda, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:28BOSBrad Marchand: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:44COLCody McLeod: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:59COLDennis Everberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:01BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:14COLDennis Everberg: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 11:02BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:02COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:56BOSDougie Hamilton: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Landeskog – Everberg11:34
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche7:03
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – McGinn – Duchene12:40
xG 0.39–0.64 (38%)attempts 8–19goals 1–0
- Brière – Tanguay – MacKinnon13:46
xG 0.25–0.75 (25%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Barrie11:00
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Hejda – Johnson3:21
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Holden – Barrie2:51
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg9:37
xG 0.71–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith11:40
xG 0.48–0.29 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Paille – Caron – Spooner6:50
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Krejci – Lucic – Griffith12:37
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug12:17
xG 0.80–0.06 (93%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton14:47
xG 0.74–0.34 (68%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski15:43
xG 0.15–0.44 (26%)attempts 6–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).