Mon, Oct 13, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Anaheim Ducks 5, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 117 | 112 | 315 | 544 |
| BUF | 03 | 04 | 15 | 112 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:30ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Patrick Maroon, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 8:15ANAWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 2:56ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Ryan Getzlaf · Deflected, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 3:14ANAWilliam KarlssonAssists: Cam Fowler, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–0
- P3 6:36BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Matt Moulson, Drew Stafford · Snap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 12:25ANARyan KeslerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG5–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:18BUFAndre Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:38BUFTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:42ANAPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:32BUFAndre Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:41BUFAndrej Meszaros: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:12ANARyan Kesler: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:08BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 12:27BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:27ANATim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P3 10:59BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:59ANACorey Perry: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:25BUFAndrej Meszaros: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 18:02BUFCody McCormick: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Silfverberg – Karlsson7:12
xG 0.79–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–0goals 1–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Etem3:45
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey4:00
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kesler – Smith-Pelly – Etem2:08
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler12:00
xG 1.06–0.11 (91%)attempts 23–2goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm15:12
xG 0.92–0.15 (86%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen8:48
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gionta – Mitchell – Reinhart9:26
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- McCormick – Deslauriers – Flynn6:12
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Stewart – Hodgson – Girgensons10:01
xG 0.11–0.57 (16%)attempts 3–15goals 0–1
- Moulson – Stafford – Ennis10:25
xG 0.23–0.72 (25%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Ristolainen9:16
xG 0.10–0.40 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Benoit – Meszaros13:10
xG 0.02–0.58 (4%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
- Gorges – Myers11:59
xG 0.32–0.95 (25%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).