Tue, Oct 14, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Anaheim Ducks 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 215 | 16 | 07 | 00 | 2 | 428 |
| PHI | 011 | 218 | 111 | 02 | 1 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:20ANATim JackmanAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Nate Thompson · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 16:53ANADevante Smith-PellyAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 12:43PHIMark StreitPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 17:35PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–2
- P2 19:43ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 14:40PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Michael Del Zotto · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 2. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 4. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 5. PHI Matt Read stopped
- 6. ANA Ryan Kesler stopped
- 7. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 8. ANA William Karlsson scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:21ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 5:49PHIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:51PHINick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:02ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:14ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:43ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Beleskey14:22
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Karlsson – Rakell7:22
xG 0.09–0.06 (62%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly11:37
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
- Jackman – Thompson – Etem6:43
xG 0.19–0.74 (21%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen13:26
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler13:45
xG 0.33–0.34 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm18:32
xG 0.57–1.17 (33%)attempts 10–22goals 2–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl11:25
xG 0.96–0.23 (81%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Bellemare12:01
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Rinaldo – Akeson5:52
xG 0.06–0.19 (25%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier11:38
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Del Zotto12:01
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Grossmann – MacDonald6:34
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz5:59
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).