Tue, Oct 14, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
San Jose Sharks 6, Washington Capitals 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 38 | 17 | 18 | 00 | 1 | 623 |
| WSH | 08 | 315 | 210 | 01 | 0 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23SJSMatt IrwinAssists: Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 4:36SJSMatt IrwinPPAssists: Tommy Wingels, Matt Nieto · Backhand, 0.39 xG2–0
- P1 9:34SJSJohn ScottAssists: Adam Burish, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 2:51WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 5:27SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Justin Braun · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 6:35WSHMike GreenAssists: Liam O'Brien, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P2 7:09WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 1:37SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Chris Tierney, Tye McGinn · Wrist, 0.41 xG5–3
- P3 14:09WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Slap, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 15:25WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Mike Green, Andre Burakovsky · Snap, 0.15 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 2. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
- 3. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 4. SJS Joe Pavelski scored
- 5. WSH Eric Fehr stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:38WSHMichael Latta: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:03SJSBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:42SJSTomas Hertl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:32WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:24SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:46SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:46WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWingels – McGinn – Tierney7:39
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Burish – Desjardins – Scott5:01
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl12:13
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto11:37
xG 0.16–0.80 (16%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Demers14:32
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun16:23
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Burns – Irwin14:28
xG 0.34–0.68 (34%)attempts 12–16goals 2–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Ovechkin – Backstrom16:19
xG 1.03–0.19 (85%)attempts 23–10goals 1–1
- Brouwer – Johansson – Burakovsky11:36
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Latta – Kuznetsov – O'Brien4:27
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich8:14
xG 0.22–0.08 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Schmidt13:02
xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Orpik – Green3:19
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner17:59
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).