Tue, Oct 14, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 113 | 18 | 12 | 03 | 2 | 426 |
| CAR | 07 | 16 | 211 | 01 | 1 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Chris Stewart, Tyson Strachan · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 0:30CARRiley NashAssists: Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 1:53BUFTorrey MitchellAssists: Brian Gionta · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 2:54BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Cody Hodgson · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 12:11CARChris TerryAssists: Zach Boychuk, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:12CARZach BoychukAssists: Chris Terry, Jay McClement · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Alexander Semin stopped
- 2. BUF Matt Moulson scored
- 3. CAR Chris Terry scored
- 4. BUF Cody Hodgson stopped
- 5. CAR Nathan Gerbe stopped
- 6. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 7. CAR Jay McClement stopped
- 8. BUF Chris Stewart stopped
- 9. CAR Victor Rask stopped
- 10. BUF Marcus Foligno stopped
- 11. CAR Zach Boychuk stopped
- 12. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
- 13. CAR Elias Lindholm stopped
- 14. BUF Brian Gionta stopped
- 15. CAR Jiri Tlusty stopped
- 16. BUF Zemgus Girgensons scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:34CARChris Terry: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:59CARBrad Malone: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:33BUFDrew Stafford: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:56BUFAndre Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:09BUFTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gionta – Mitchell – Girgensons9:53
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- McCormick – Deslauriers – Reinhart5:48
xG 0.02–0.15 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Moulson – Stafford – Ennis11:17
xG 0.05–0.73 (6%)attempts 3–19goals 0–1
- Stewart – Hodgson – Foligno12:33
xG 0.35–1.06 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Strachan – Weber12:28
xG 0.20–0.50 (28%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Gorges – Myers15:55
xG 0.40–0.87 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 2–2
- Benoit – Ristolainen14:12
xG 0.23–1.26 (15%)attempts 7–22goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Gerbe – Nash8:51
xG 0.75–0.10 (88%)attempts 14–2goals 1–1
- Tlusty – Rask – Lindholm10:32
xG 0.65–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Terry – Boychuk4:20
xG 0.37–0.11 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- McClement – Malone – Brown7:22
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Murphy10:37
xG 1.10–0.19 (85%)attempts 18–5goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Faulk12:28
xG 0.93–0.14 (87%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Sekera – Faulk2:55
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).