Tue, Oct 14, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Colorado Avalanche 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 17 | 05 | 00 | 224 |
| TOR | 18 | 016 | 115 | 11 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:54TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 13:14COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jarome Iginla, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 17:40COLMatt DucheneAssists: Jarome Iginla, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 10:36TORJoffrey LupulUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 0:34TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:13TORStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:03COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:26COLJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:26TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:26COLJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:54TORJoffrey Lupul: Interference2 min
- P2 12:30COLJarome Iginla: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:30COLNick Holden: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:23TORJames Reimer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:53COLAlex Tanguay: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – Everberg11:57
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche5:24
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Tanguay – MacKinnon10:14
xG 0.19–0.34 (35%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – McGinn – Duchene12:50
xG 0.53–1.11 (32%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barrie3:18
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Johnson – Holden12:55
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hejda – Barrie10:01
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Winnik – Kadri12:31
xG 0.93–0.41 (69%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:14
xG 1.01–0.70 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Clarkson – Santorelli – Komarov10:21
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Holland – Panik – Kozun3:41
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Franson12:23
xG 0.76–0.26 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Polak – Percy12:31
xG 0.69–0.64 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Robidas – Rielly11:40
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).