Tue, Oct 14, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 1, Los Angeles Kings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 012 | 113 | 132 |
| LAK | 313 | 27 | 16 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 4:21LAKJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Matt Greene · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 9:49LAKTyler ToffoliSHAssists: Slava Voynov · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 5:04LAKDustin BrownAssists: Dwight King · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 5:29LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–5
- P3 5:59LAKTanner PearsonPPAssists: Alec Martinez, Mike Richards · Backhand, 0.35 xG0–6
- P3 19:39EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:50LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:50EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:28EDMBenoit Pouliot: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:30LAKTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:30EDMMark Arcobello: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:34EDMJesse Joensuu: Holding2 min
- P3 13:42LAKSlava Voynov: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:32LAKJarret Stoll: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arcobello won the faceoff against Stoll
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJoensuu – Perron – Yakimov9:29
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Purcell – Hall – Arcobello11:56
xG 0.37–0.44 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Acton9:13
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Yakupov – Draisaitl8:49
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Nurse14:41
xG 0.94–0.91 (51%)attempts 18–10goals 0–2
- Ference – Hunt15:23
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Nikitin – Schultz3:43
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Pearson9:52
xG 0.58–0.36 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff10:15
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Williams – Richards – Kopitar11:05
xG 0.71–0.62 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Stoll – Brown – King11:09
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Voynov17:19
xG 0.87–0.63 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Greene – Martinez12:47
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Doughty – McNabb17:14
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).