Wed, Oct 15, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 114 | 110 | 011 | 04 | 2 | 339 |
| DET | 14 | 08 | 16 | 02 | 0 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 8:40DETTomas TatarAssists: Tomas Jurco, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 13:31BOSReilly SmithAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 2:56DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Andrej Nestrasil stopped
- 2. BOS David Krejci scored
- 3. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 4. BOS Reilly Smith scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:44DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P1 17:06BOSDaniel Paille: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:48BOSCarl Soderberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:14BOSMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:29BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:00DETGustav Nyquist: Holding2 min
- P3 7:45DETJohan Franzen: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:19BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith10:43
xG 0.94–0.13 (88%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Gagne – Krejci – Lucic2:30
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg10:55
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Gagne – Paille – Spooner4:12
xG 0.02–0.07 (23%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton15:49
xG 1.21–0.22 (85%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug12:21
xG 0.29–0.12 (72%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid12:32
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Sheahan – Jurco7:41
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Helm – Nyquist – Nestrasil2:24
xG 0.13–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan2:40
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – Nestrasil3:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Smith – DeKeyser12:50
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl7:17
xG 0.31–0.35 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Quincey – Smith2:58
xG 0.02–0.28 (6%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).