Wed, Oct 15, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 02 | 16 | 07 | 13 | 218 |
| CHI | 018 | 016 | 113 | 03 | 150 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:55CGYDennis WidemanAssists: Joe Colborne · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P3 14:15CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jonathan Toews · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- OT 4:35CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:42CGYLadislav Smid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:18CGYLadislav Smid: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:40CGYBrandon Bollig: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:40CGYTJ Brodie: Holding2 min
- P2 14:25CHIMarcus Kruger: Interference2 min
- P2 19:01CGYKris Russell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:24CGYDevin Setoguchi: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:04CGYDennis Wideman: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Setoguchi – Colborne – Gaudreau3:41
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Stajan – Bollig5:18
xG 0.11–0.17 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Gaudreau5:06
xG 0.04–0.19 (19%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Glencross – Byron – Backlund10:15
xG 0.05–0.44 (10%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Smid2:17
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie12:50
xG 0.31–0.59 (35%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Smid – Diaz7:14
xG 0.13–0.42 (24%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Shaw – Saad10:18
xG 0.80–0.00 (100%)attempts 19–1goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews9:18
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Carcillo – Smith – Kruger5:20
xG 0.55–0.12 (82%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Morin – Kruger2:34
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook13:51
xG 0.71–0.09 (88%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson9:21
xG 0.67–0.25 (73%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk6:32
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).