Thu, Oct 16, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 110 | 211 | 328 |
| PIT | 29 | 010 | 010 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 7:46PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Kris Letang, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 6:08DALAntoine RousselAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 17:03DALJamie BennAssists: Trevor Daley, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 19:57DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:29DALBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 4:58PITSimon Despres: Interference2 min
- P1 6:50DALVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:57DALAntoine Roussel: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:26PITPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:45DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:57PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P3 19:50PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Spezza – Eakin – Garbutt7:50
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Horcoff – Eaves2:30
xG 0.01–0.01 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin2:24
xG 0.39–0.38 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Cole – Spezza – Hemsky2:23
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Nemeth2:29
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Dillon13:55
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski15:38
xG 0.70–0.86 (45%)attempts 15–23goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Malkin – Sutter5:44
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Adams – Spaling – Sill3:09
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Comeau – Sutter6:18
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Goc – Comeau – Downie3:18
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta17:02
xG 1.16–0.47 (71%)attempts 26–14goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Despres10:35
xG 0.17–0.17 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Martin – Ehrhoff17:01
xG 0.30–0.82 (27%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).