Thu, Oct 16, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
New Jersey Devils 2, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 214 | 07 | 07 | 228 |
| WSH | 28 | 116 | 39 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Troy Brouwer, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 10:15NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Travis Zajac, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 11:02WSHChris BrownAssists: Mike Green, Brooks Orpik · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 16:36NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Ryane Clowe, Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 6:18WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Brooks Laich, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 0:56WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Matt Niskanen, Troy Brouwer · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 3:25WSHJoel WardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 8:55WSHAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:57WSHChris Brown: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:09NJDMichael Cammalleri: Holding2 min
- P1 18:39WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:21NJDJon Merrill: Holding2 min
- P2 11:15NJDEric Gelinas: Elbowing2 min
- P3 5:36NJDTravis Zajac: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:26NJDJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:39WSHJason Chimera: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Zubrus – Havlat5:39
xG 0.10–0.04 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Ryder – Clowe – Henrique11:01
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Jagr – Cammalleri – Zajac10:36
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
- Elias – Zubrus – Ruutu2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson12:46
xG 0.67–0.48 (58%)attempts 24–10goals 2–2
- Gelinas – Severson2:08
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky12:15
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom9:44
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Brown – Kuznetsov – O'Brien9:12
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr10:01
xG 0.12–0.09 (59%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Laich – Johansson – Burakovsky8:22
xG 0.10–0.13 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Carlson12:42
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Green – Schmidt14:19
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Alzner12:55
xG 0.23–0.33 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).