Thu, Oct 16, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 4, Montréal Canadiens 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 113 | 29 | 17 | 429 |
| MTL | 17 | 312 | 27 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 11:33MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: David Desharnais, Brendan Gallagher · Tip-in, 0.36 xG1–1
- P2 7:43MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
- P2 8:34BOSCarl SoderbergAssists: Chris Kelly, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 11:31BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Torey Krug, Chris Kelly · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 18:11MTLJiri SekacAssists: Rene Bourque, Jarred Tinordi · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 19:36MTLPA ParenteauAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Alexei Emelin · Snap, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 7:17MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alexei Emelin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 14:11BOSSimon GagneAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 19:40MTLPA ParenteauENAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec · Backhand, 0.59 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:33MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:07MTLCarey Price: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 11:11BOSDennis Seidenberg: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 18:10MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:12BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:12MTLP.K. Subban: Embellishment2 min
- P2 19:43BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:40BOSMilan Lucic: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:40BOSMilan Lucic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg13:32
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith10:14
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Gagne – Campbell – Paille8:56
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Krejci – Lucic – Griffith10:19
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug8:24
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- McQuaid – Krug5:16
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Miller4:11
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:30
xG 0.89–0.16 (85%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Bourque – Eller – Sekac9:30
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Malhotra – Moen – Prust9:41
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Parenteau – Galchenyuk13:05
xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Tinordi12:27
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Markov – Gilbert13:11
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Emelin – Subban14:56
xG 0.48–0.47 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).