Thu, Oct 16, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 36 | 017 | 08 | 331 |
| OTT | 18 | 111 | 39 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25COLAlex TanguayAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:57COLJohn MitchellSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 11:01OTTZack SmithAssists: Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–1
- P1 17:38COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P2 6:11OTTDavid LegwandPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–2
- P3 8:39OTTBobby RyanAssists: Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 11:43OTTClarke MacArthurGWGAssists: Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 18:38OTTChris NeilENAssists: David Legwand · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 8:43COLMax Talbot: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:19COLJan Hejda: Holding2 min
- P1 14:07COLMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:00OTTEric Gryba: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:39COLDaniel Brière: Holding2 min
- P2 2:57OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:57COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:57OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:31COLNate Guenin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 8:44OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:44OTTEric Gryba: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:44COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:53OTTMika Zibanejad: Holding2 min
- P3 7:01COLNick Holden: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:32OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:40COLMax Talbot: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon7:00
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Everberg2:56
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brière – Tanguay – MacKinnon2:29
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Iginla – McGinn – Duchene10:50
xG 0.18–0.39 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie2:58
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Stuart – Guenin9:00
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Hejda – Barrie8:51
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Smith – Lazar10:12
xG 0.81–0.02 (97%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone6:51
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Legwand – Neil – Condra6:03
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Chiasson – Zibanejad7:23
xG 0.19–0.33 (36%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci4:19
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki7:40
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Wiercioch3:50
xG 0.02–0.02 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).