Thu, Oct 16, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 1, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 15 | 010 | 02 | 0 | 130 |
| NYR | 08 | 012 | 111 | 03 | 1 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:53CARChris TerryAssists: Ryan Murphy, Tim Gleason · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 9:40NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. CAR Alexander Semin stopped
- 3. NYR Lee Stempniak stopped
- 4. CAR Chris Terry stopped
- 5. NYR Rick Nash scored
- 6. CAR Ryan Murphy stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:28CARTim Gleason: Interference2 min
- P1 12:16NYRChris Kreider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:08CARNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:51CARJay Harrison: Interference2 min
- P2 8:37CARBrett Bellemore: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:18NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:08NYRMarc Staal: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:52CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:52NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:22CARJay Harrison: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against St. Louis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Terry – Boychuk5:11
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- McClement – Malone – Boychuk2:15
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Rask – Lindholm9:58
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Semin – Tlusty – Nash9:39
xG 0.27–0.45 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore12:40
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk13:00
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Gleason – Murphy10:54
xG 0.23–0.64 (27%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Brassard – Zuccarello3:18
xG 0.82–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–1goals 0–1
- Brassard – Kreider – Zuccarello3:15
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Hagelin – Hayes3:56
xG 0.10–0.02 (81%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Hagelin2:54
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh12:25
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Klein – Staal13:10
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Staal – McDonagh2:47
xG 0.02–0.04 (39%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).