Fri, Oct 17, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 2, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 012 | 115 | 13 | 230 |
| EDM | 010 | 011 | 07 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:49VANRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 19:45VANDaniel SedinENAssists: Henrik Sedin, Radim Vrbata · Snap, 0.54 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:52VANDerek Dorsett: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:23VANZack Kassian: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:13EDMMark Arcobello: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:26VANHenrik Sedin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:07EDMJeff Petry: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:34VANDan Hamhuis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:07EDMJesse Joensuu: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arcobello won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vrbata11:16
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Matthias6:46
xG 0.07–0.04 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Bonino8:57
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Richardson – Kassian – Vey10:22
xG 0.22–0.65 (25%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Sbisa6:21
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev12:43
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Stanton4:47
xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Gordon – Joensuu8:26
xG 0.64–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Perron – Draisaitl8:20
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins2:44
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Purcell – Arcobello – Yakupov3:45
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry13:58
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Schultz14:55
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Fayne – Marincin11:26
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).