Sat, Oct 18, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Colorado Avalanche 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 011 | 112 | 234 |
| MTL | 017 | 311 | 08 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23COLAlex TanguayAssists: John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 4:13MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:23MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 17:59MTLP.K. SubbanGWGAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 17:29COLMatt DucheneAssists: Jarome Iginla, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:53MTLDavid Desharnais: Interference2 min
- P1 16:26COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:50COLMarc-Andre Cliche: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:15MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:07MTLJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:07COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:47MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P2 18:46MTLRene Bourque: Holding2 min
- P3 6:47COLJan Hejda: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:32
xG 0.52–0.23 (70%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Iginla – McGinn – Duchene9:43
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Duchene3:57
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Tanguay – Mitchell6:46
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Holden11:20
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson2:07
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:55
xG 0.01–0.01 (52%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Parenteau – Galchenyuk11:21
xG 0.65–0.52 (56%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:47
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Bourque – Eller – Sekac7:51
xG 0.38–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Moen – Prust5:25
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Tinordi9:55
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Markov – Gilbert13:08
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban12:56
xG 0.65–0.73 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).