Sat, Oct 18, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 212 | 017 | 240 |
| OTT | 113 | 112 | 110 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:50OTTDavid LegwandAssists: Mike Hoffman, Chris Neil · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 7:02OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Deflected, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 13:57CBJNick FolignoAssists: Scott Hartnell, Tim Erixon · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 14:38CBJDavid SavardAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 9:38OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Chris Neil · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:13OTTBobby Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:56CBJJames Wisniewski: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P1 17:37CBJJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:37OTTKyle Turris: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:37CBJRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:19CBJJames Wisniewski: Interference2 min
- P2 0:09OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:52OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:21OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:21CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Foligno – Johansen6:38
xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Calvert – Atkinson – Wennberg5:34
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Skille – Anisimov – Letestu5:43
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Anisimov – Wennberg5:00
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Erixon16:08
xG 1.24–0.33 (79%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout11:31
xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Johnson – Savard16:52
xG 0.54–0.93 (37%)attempts 14–18goals 2–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone12:30
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Legwand – Neil – Hoffman8:24
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Ryan – Chiasson – Zibanejad10:08
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Michalek – Smith – Lazar10:29
xG 0.12–0.48 (20%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch2:03
xG 0.37–0.11 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki14:23
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
- Phillips – Karlsson17:41
xG 0.64–0.93 (41%)attempts 10–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).