Sat, Oct 18, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Detroit Red Wings 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 09 | 08 | 01 | 030 |
| DET | 013 | 012 | 05 | 12 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 4:50DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Jonathan Ericsson · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:54DETAndrej Nestrasil: Interference2 min
- P1 6:38TORDion Phaneuf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 6:38DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:06TORMatt Frattin: Holding2 min
- P1 11:33TORPhil Kessel: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:30TORNazem Kadri: Elbowing2 min
- P1 15:22DETRiley Sheahan: Holding2 min
- P2 3:09DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P2 15:24TORJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:08DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:52TORPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:25DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Winnik – Kadri6:51
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Santorelli – Komarov10:41
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:26
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Franson14:01
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Robidas – Gardiner10:05
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly11:29
xG 0.21–0.71 (22%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Andersson – Glendening9:00
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco8:12
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Weiss – Helm – Nestrasil5:38
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist10:14
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Smith9:30
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson12:06
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser10:36
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).