Sat, Oct 18, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
San Jose Sharks 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 114 | 29 | 432 |
| NJD | 08 | 015 | 214 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:53SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 17:52SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 1:36SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 8:00NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Andy Greene · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 12:10NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Michael Ryder, Jon Merrill · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:46SJSJoe ThorntonENAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:07NJDJordin Tootoo: Interference2 min
- P1 5:07NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:07SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:57SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:54NJDJon Merrill: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:33SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:29NJDJaromir Jagr: Interference2 min
- P2 9:49SJSScott Hannan: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:34NJDMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBurish – Desjardins – Hayes6:07
xG 0.55–0.18 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Wingels – McGinn – Tierney7:20
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 0–2
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto10:37
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl13:40
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun16:19
xG 0.91–0.55 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Hannan – Irwin13:33
xG 0.60–0.64 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Burns – Mueller14:47
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Cammalleri – Brunner4:55
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Cammalleri – Zajac6:50
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac5:18
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta4:33
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Merrill3:03
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Gelinas5:35
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky9:48
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).