Sat, Oct 18, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 110 | 08 | 017 | 135 |
| PIT | 016 | 211 | 111 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46NYIThomas HickeyAssists: Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 13:49PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 14:44PITPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 18:40PITPatric HornqvistENAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–3
Penalties (20)
- P1 9:31NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:02NYIJohnny Boychuk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:10PITSteve Downie: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:44PITPaul Martin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:21NYIRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:21PITSteve Downie: Embellishment2 min
- P2 9:31PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:56NYICory Conacher: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:34NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:54PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:54NYICory Conacher: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:15PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:23PITSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:23NYITravis Hamonic: Instigator2 min
- P3 4:23NYITravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:23NYITravis Hamonic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:23PITSteve Downie: Charging2 min
- P3 11:36PITSimon Despres: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:02PITSteve Downie: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:45PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Tavares – Conacher11:42
xG 0.94–0.42 (69%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas9:36
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Nelson – Strome4:51
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Clutterbuck – Bailey6:56
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – de Haan9:24
xG 0.79–0.04 (95%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Hickey – de Haan2:33
xG 0.01–0.06 (14%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic9:19
xG 0.21–0.26 (44%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Comeau – Downie – Spaling3:37
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist12:38
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Dupuis – Malkin – Sutter7:48
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Goc – Sill4:10
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Despres10:48
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta13:24
xG 0.71–0.63 (53%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Martin – Ehrhoff13:19
xG 0.39–0.67 (37%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).