Sun, Oct 19, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 318 | 15 | 429 |
| WPG | 113 | 010 | 012 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:28WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 6:12CGYDennis WidemanAssists: Matt Stajan, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:12CGYJohnny GaudreauPPGWGAssists: Joe Colborne, Mason Raymond · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 12:54CGYMason RaymondAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 3:18CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:28CGYJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:19CGYRaphael Diaz: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:27WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 7:07WPGBlake Wheeler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:27WPGBlake Wheeler: Charging2 min
- P3 11:27WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:27CGYJoe Colborne: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Colborne – Monahan4:49
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hudler – Byron – Backlund7:29
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Stajan – Glencross – Setoguchi2:12
xG 0.02–0.02 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Bollig5:40
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell18:05
xG 0.82–0.55 (60%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Smid – Brodie4:15
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:50
xG 0.20–0.44 (31%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele12:19
xG 0.56–0.19 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Frolik – Galiardi – Lowry10:45
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Peluso7:03
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba12:07
xG 1.00–0.54 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Pardy – Postma8:58
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Bogosian8:04
xG 0.30–0.44 (40%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).