Tue, Oct 21, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
San Jose Sharks 3, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 215 | 010 | 334 |
| BOS | 18 | 116 | 39 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:57BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 16:28SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 6:54BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 16:15SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Patrick Marleau, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 16:52SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Justin Braun · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 4:50BOSSeth GriffithAssists: Milan Lucic, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 10:42BOSGregory CampbellGWGAssists: Daniel Paille · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 19:35BOSDavid KrejciENAssists: Zdeno Chara, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:02SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:56BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:46SJSAndrew Desjardins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:29SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:51BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Nieto11:39
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels8:42
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Burish – Scott – Hayes3:34
xG 0.01–0.05 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Sheppard – Hertl5:44
xG 0.02–0.30 (5%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun16:41
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Burns – Irwin19:15
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
- Hannan – Demers13:25
xG 0.10–0.72 (13%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg13:10
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Griffith11:18
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Gagne – Campbell – Paille9:25
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith13:18
xG 0.01–0.54 (1%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Krug15:10
xG 0.78–0.46 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- McQuaid – Bartkowski14:12
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton19:57
xG 0.41–0.67 (38%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).