Tue, Oct 21, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 3, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 012 | 218 | 116 | 346 |
| DAL | 310 | 39 | 09 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Antoine Roussel, Trevor Daley · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 17:46DALErik ColePPAssists: Jordie Benn, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 19:17DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Kevin Connauton · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 0:48DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 1:17DALCody EakinAssists: Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–5
- P2 3:39VANRadim VrbataAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–5
- P2 4:44DALErik ColeAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Brenden Dillon · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–6
- P2 13:55VANZack KassianAssists: Chris Tanev, Brad Richardson · Tip-in, 0.24 xG2–6
- P3 6:45VANJannik HansenAssists: Derek Dorsett, Linden Vey · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:09DALKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:17VANChris Tanev: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:55VANDerek Dorsett: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:15VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P2 9:29VANHenrik Sedin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:01DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:00DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:19DALBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:46VANNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:05VANYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Matthias – Kassian8:22
xG 1.67–0.47 (78%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata12:04
xG 0.88–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 1–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Vey6:27
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Higgins – Burrows – Bonino8:15
xG 0.40–1.08 (27%)attempts 12–14goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev11:04
xG 1.58–0.36 (81%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Weber – Sbisa8:27
xG 1.63–0.42 (80%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Bieksa – Sbisa3:20
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt8:49
xG 1.02–0.54 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Cole – Horcoff – Sceviour5:21
xG 0.28–0.28 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Fiddler – McKenzie8:20
xG 0.13–0.68 (16%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin9:45
xG 0.26–1.45 (15%)attempts 5–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Benn – Dillon14:16
xG 0.65–0.73 (47%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Daley – Goligoski14:52
xG 0.49–1.06 (32%)attempts 13–16goals 2–1
- Connauton – Oleksiak8:24
xG 0.68–1.87 (27%)attempts 12–18goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).