Tue, Oct 21, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Florida Panthers 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 214 | 114 | 07 | 11 | 436 |
| COL | 010 | 317 | 06 | 00 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43FLABrandon PirriAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 13:03FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 10:51COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 11:22COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 14:41COLAlex TanguayAssists: Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 17:41FLASean BergenheimAssists: Dylan Olsen, Nick Bjugstad · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 2:23FLABrad BoyesPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P2 9:02FLABrad Boyes: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:01FLAErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 11:57FLAScottie Upshall: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 16:13COLMarc-Andre Cliche: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:13FLADerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:01FLASean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:05COLDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:36FLANick Bjugstad: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 1:26COLBrad Stuart: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau10:12
xG 1.14–0.22 (84%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky6:14
xG 0.63–0.06 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Fleischmann – Pirri8:20
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov13:28
xG 0.37–0.97 (27%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Kulikov17:42
xG 2.08–0.09 (96%)attempts 24–6goals 0–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson11:02
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad16:57
xG 0.50–1.19 (30%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:53
xG 1.01–0.57 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche5:12
xG 0.06–0.12 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McLeod2:15
xG 0.00–0.36 (1%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Mitchell – McGinn7:59
xG 0.25–0.66 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Wilson2:12
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stuart – Holden2:40
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie2:41
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).