Wed, Oct 22, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 27 | 017 | 39 | 533 |
| PIT | 111 | 16 | 18 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50PITNick SpalingAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:20PHIMark StreitAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 13:18PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Sean Couturier, Nick Schultz · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 9:00PITPaul MartinAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 6:50PHIR.J. UmbergerAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 8:50PHIMatt ReadGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, R.J. Umberger · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 17:03PITMarcel GocAssists: Nick Spaling, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 19:33PHISean CouturierENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.55 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:43PHIChris VandeVelde: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:04PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:47PITSimon Despres: Interference2 min
- P1 18:47PITSimon Despres: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:47PHIR.J. Umberger: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:20PITPascal Dupuis: Holding2 min
- P2 19:39PHINick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:39PITChris Kunitz: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Bellemare9:28
xG 0.94–0.03 (97%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier9:41
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl10:06
xG 0.11–0.46 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – MacDonald15:33
xG 1.17–0.73 (62%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Schenn – Del Zotto12:03
xG 0.30–0.21 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Streit – Schultz13:48
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Malkin – Sutter10:06
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Comeau – Downie – Spaling8:50
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Adams – Goc – Sill4:39
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist11:43
xG 0.67–1.07 (39%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Ehrhoff17:14
xG 0.83–0.58 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 3–0
- Letang – Maatta14:05
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
- Scuderi – Despres11:12
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).