Wed, Oct 22, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Washington Capitals 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 110 | 013 | 234 |
| EDM | 110 | 25 | 05 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:53EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Teddy Purcell, David Perron · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 10:15WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:50WSHMike GreenAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 5:10EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:08EDMNikita NikitinPPGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:10EDMMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:29EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:29WSHLiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:29WSHLiam O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P1 16:11EDMJesse Joensuu: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:11WSHJason Chimera: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Johansson – Burakovsky12:09
xG 0.90–0.15 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom13:33
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Latta – Kuznetsov – O'Brien6:22
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr10:56
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Schmidt13:34
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson18:18
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Alzner13:50
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Purcell – Perron – Draisaitl9:53
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Arcobello – Yakupov9:25
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu8:51
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins15:54
xG 0.21–0.70 (23%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Nikitin – Schultz17:26
xG 0.52–0.74 (41%)attempts 10–21goals 1–1
- Ference – Petry17:45
xG 0.34–0.66 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Fayne – Marincin15:13
xG 0.24–0.62 (28%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).