Wed, Oct 22, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Buffalo Sabres 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 07 | 111 | 123 |
| ANA | 18 | 112 | 214 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:50ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 9:20ANARyan KeslerGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 14:54BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 17:17ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 18:35ANACorey PerryENAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:29BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:29ANATim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:29ANATim Jackman: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:21BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P2 4:08BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:20BUFSam Reinhart: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:51ANASami Vatanen: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:02BUFTyler Myers: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:02BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Hodgson – Foligno12:08
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Gionta – Moulson – Ennis10:24
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- McCormick – Deslauriers – Reinhart7:08
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Stafford – Mitchell – Girgensons8:06
xG 0.23–0.64 (27%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Ristolainen10:53
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Gorges – Meszaros2:30
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Weber10:11
xG 0.28–0.68 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:28
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Karlsson – Rakell6:27
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Etem5:03
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Smith-Pelly11:23
xG 0.58–0.55 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler14:47
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm15:55
xG 0.97–0.59 (62%)attempts 27–16goals 1–0
- Fistric – Vatanen12:25
xG 0.25–0.66 (27%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).