Thu, Oct 23, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 216 | 16 | 04 | 00 | 326 |
| DET | 19 | 012 | 28 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12PITPascal DupuisAssists: Blake Comeau, Simon Despres · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:06PITOlli MaattaAssists: Blake Comeau, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 15:00DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Darren Helm · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 8:29PITChris KunitzAssists: Simon Despres · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 17:21DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:21DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 4:16DETJustin AbdelkaderGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:26DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:10PITMarcel Goc: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:38PITBlake Comeau: Holding2 min
- P2 18:33DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 0:57PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
- P3 0:57PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:57DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:08DETJakub Kindl: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:48PITSteve Downie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:48DETJonathan Ericsson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Malkin – Comeau9:51
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Adams – Goc – Sill5:51
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist12:18
xG 0.24–0.47 (33%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Downie – Sutter – Spaling9:00
xG 0.17–0.48 (27%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Ehrhoff16:40
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Despres11:06
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 2–1
- Letang – Maatta15:14
xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist7:01
xG 0.56–0.11 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Nestrasil – Sheahan – Jurco4:21
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar7:02
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan4:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Smith10:40
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Kronwall – DeKeyser3:55
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson10:02
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).