Thu, Oct 23, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Buffalo Sabres 0, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 07 | 013 | 029 |
| LAK | 112 | 112 | 015 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36LAKJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 15:11LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:29BUFTyler Myers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:27LAKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:27BUFDrew Stafford: Instigator2 min
- P1 11:27BUFDrew Stafford: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:27BUFDrew Stafford: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 11:27LAKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:30BUFChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:58BUFTyler Myers: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:58LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:51LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:19BUFTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:19LAKMatt Greene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:03LAKMike Richards: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcCormick – Stewart – Foligno2:58
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Mitchell – Girgensons6:43
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Stewart – Hodgson – Foligno12:30
xG 1.03–0.95 (52%)attempts 18–18goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Deslauriers – Girgensons3:52
xG 0.01–0.02 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Weber7:38
xG 0.71–0.36 (67%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Benoit – Ristolainen14:06
xG 0.66–0.70 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Weber – Zadorov2:51
xG 0.01–0.10 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – King12:36
xG 1.86–0.07 (96%)attempts 25–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson9:03
xG 0.75–0.52 (59%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Richards – Clifford – Nolan10:02
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Andreoff9:02
xG 0.32–0.66 (32%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – McNabb14:20
xG 1.34–0.19 (88%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty15:40
xG 1.20–0.43 (74%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Regehr – Doughty4:25
xG 0.49–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).