Thu, Oct 23, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 05 | 312 | 211 | 528 |
| SJS | 216 | 09 | 212 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11SJSAdam BurishAssists: Jason Demers · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:44SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau · Deflected, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 8:22CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 12:13CBJMark LetestuSHAssists: Artem Anisimov, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 13:36CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 2:05SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 8:23SJSLogan CoutureUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 11:40CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Scott Hartnell, James Wisniewski · Slap, 0.54 xG4–4
- P3 19:39CBJMark LetestuGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell, David Savard · Deflected, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:47CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:47SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:44SJSEriah Hayes: Holding2 min
- P1 13:37CBJMatt Calvert: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:51CBJJared Boll: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:23CBJJames Wisniewski: Holding2 min
- P2 4:08SJSJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P2 11:00CBJJack Skille: Interference2 min
- P2 15:04SJSBrent Burns: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 11:04SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:15CBJNick Foligno: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Anisimov – Letestu6:22
xG 0.25–0.02 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Johansen10:51
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Cracknell – Boll – Chaput2:37
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Calvert – Atkinson – Wennberg5:08
xG 0.05–0.38 (12%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Goloubef10:56
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Erixon8:47
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard14:38
xG 0.47–0.85 (36%)attempts 12–19goals 3–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Nieto9:56
xG 0.63–0.18 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels8:48
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Burish – Desjardins – McGinn4:22
xG 0.14–0.27 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Sheppard – Hertl – Hayes7:45
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Irwin13:52
xG 0.81–0.28 (74%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Hannan – Demers9:03
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun13:24
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).