Fri, Oct 24, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Dallas Stars 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 014 | 211 | 010 | 02 | 2 | 337 |
| NJD | 19 | 06 | 110 | 02 | 0 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21NJDEric GelinasAssists: Jacob Josefson · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 4:28DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 15:48DALPatrick EavesAssists: Alex Goligoski, Cody Eakin · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 8:18NJDDamien BrunnerAssists: Patrik Elias, Ryane Clowe · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Michael Cammalleri stopped
- 2. DAL Jason Spezza scored
- 3. NJD Jaromir Jagr stopped
- 4. DAL Jamie Benn scored
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:29NJDEric Gelinas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:54NJDBryce Salvador: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:54DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:34NJDAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Fiddler – Eaves10:07
xG 0.78–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Horcoff – Sceviour10:35
xG 0.34–0.46 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:42
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin15:52
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benn – Dillon19:14
xG 0.85–0.84 (50%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Daley – Goligoski20:08
xG 0.49–0.65 (43%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Jokipakka – Oleksiak11:40
xG 0.26–0.49 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Gionta – Josefson5:31
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Elias – Clowe – Brunner5:41
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Elias – Cammalleri – Brunner5:21
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Cammalleri – Zajac8:18
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson19:18
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Merrill5:03
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky13:57
xG 0.50–0.61 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).