Fri, Oct 24, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 112 | 36 | 09 | 427 |
| WPG | 016 | 114 | 112 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 4:45TBLJonathan DrouinAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 5:33WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 12:52TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 18:02TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 10:19WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:55WPGMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:21TBLValtteri Filppula: Holding2 min
- P1 14:00TBLMatt Carle: Holding2 min
- P2 1:34TBLRadko Gudas: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:05WPGDustin Byfuglien: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:05TBLRadko Gudas: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:05TBLRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:43WPGZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
- P2 8:52TBLJason Garrison: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:16WPGPaul Postma: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:53WPGBryan Little: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov6:14
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Paquette3:26
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Stamkos – Paquette2:04
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Paquette3:09
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Stralman2:08
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Carle – Stralman10:36
xG 0.52–0.30 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Carle – Gudas2:28
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele11:19
xG 0.90–0.20 (82%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Halischuk2:54
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Frolik – Galiardi – Lowry8:40
xG 0.19–0.43 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian8:50
xG 0.42–0.11 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 1–1
- Clitsome – Postma9:26
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba4:27
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).