Fri, Oct 24, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 3, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 28 | 09 | 112 | 329 |
| COL | 115 | 216 | 417 | 748 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 14:28COLJarome IginlaAssists: Matt Duchene, Nick Holden · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 17:23VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Nick Bonino, Chris Higgins · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 6:06COLJamie McGinnAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 8:48COLErik JohnsonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 2:05COLDaniel BrièreGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie, Marc-Andre Cliche · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–4
- P3 5:55COLMatt DucheneAssists: Jarome Iginla, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 10:09VANDaniel SedinAssists: Radim Vrbata, Alexander Edler · Slap, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 12:56COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Zach Redmond · Slap, 0.02 xG3–6
- P3 19:16COLJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jan Hejda · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–7
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:44COLJamie McGinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:25VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:25COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:55VANZack Kassian: Holding2 min
- P2 3:57VANLuca Sbisa: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:51VANNick Bonino: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:32VANShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:54COLSemyon Varlamov: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 6:35COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:35VANDerek Dorsett: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:35VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:35COLDaniel Brière: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:59COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:18VANZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vrbata10:09
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 14–5goals 2–1
- Hansen – Dorsett – Vey6:24
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Bonino10:29
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Richardson – Matthias – Kassian8:03
xG 0.27–0.91 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Edler – Tanev13:00
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 3–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa15:01
xG 0.59–0.81 (42%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Weber – Sbisa13:19
xG 0.18–0.62 (22%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBrière – McLeod – Cliche5:30
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:42
xG 0.41–0.16 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Talbot – Mitchell – McGinn8:42
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Duchene11:09
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Barrie14:33
xG 1.20–0.20 (85%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Stuart – Redmond2:25
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Hejda – Johnson13:26
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).