Fri, Oct 24, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 015 | 210 | 15 | 330 |
| EDM | 010 | 29 | 410 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:44EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 15:08CARRiley NashAssists: Justin Faulk, Jiri Tlusty · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 16:46EDMJesse JoensuuAssists: Nikita Nikitin, Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–2
- P2 17:58CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jay Harrison, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 4:26EDMJordan EberlePPUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 7:50CARJay HarrisonAssists: Jay McClement · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 12:55EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: David Perron, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 15:50EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Justin Schultz, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 18:33EDMMatt HendricksENUnassisted · Snap, 0.60 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:57CARBrett Bellemore: Holding2 min
- P1 16:07CARJay Harrison: Interference2 min
- P2 2:21EDMJustin Schultz: Holding2 min
- P3 2:57CARElias Lindholm: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:26CARChris Terry: Bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Sutter – Brown4:38
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Semin – Boychuk2:13
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Tlusty – Terry – Nash2:06
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm10:53
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Sekera5:53
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk2:18
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk8:01
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Gordon – Joensuu10:49
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:17
xG 0.90–0.39 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Purcell – Perron – Draisaitl9:56
xG 0.56–0.26 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Arcobello – Yakupov8:40
xG 0.03–0.38 (6%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Schultz12:32
xG 0.92–0.22 (81%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Ference – Petry18:37
xG 0.87–0.71 (55%)attempts 19–23goals 1–0
- Fayne – Marincin14:17
xG 0.23–0.56 (29%)attempts 14–13goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).