Sat, Oct 25, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 112 | 210 | 433 |
| TOR | 09 | 06 | 118 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27BOSCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 15:58BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 2:32BOSGregory CampbellSHAssists: Daniel Paille · Snap, 0.18 xG3–0
- P3 4:09BOSDougie HamiltonAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
- P3 14:27TORRichard PanikAssists: Tyler Bozak, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:22BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P1 1:58TORDavid Clarkson: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:41TORDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:37BOSAdam McQuaid: Holding2 min
- P3 5:32BOSGregory Campbell: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:10TORDavid Clarkson: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:57TORStuart Percy: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:48BOSDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:48TORJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Santorelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith9:11
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg10:14
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Griffith7:04
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Gagne – Campbell – Paille9:10
xG 0.06–0.18 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Hamilton14:57
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Bartkowski – Trotman8:31
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid4:02
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Winnik – Kadri10:31
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Santorelli – Komarov7:02
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Holland – Panik2:12
xG 0.03–0.14 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Winnik – Komarov2:08
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Rielly2:08
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Rielly4:27
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner4:54
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).