Sat, Oct 25, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 214 | 05 | 13 | 329 |
| OTT | 011 | 16 | 114 | 04 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:09OTTAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Milan Michalek, Bobby Ryan · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 11:29NJDDamon SeversonUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 16:45NJDMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Damon Severson, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 13:51OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.32 xG2–2
- OT 3:39NJDJaromir JagrPPGWGAssists: Eric Gelinas, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:00NJDBryce Salvador: Holding2 min
- P1 16:50NJDMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:33OTTCurtis Lazar: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:22NJDStephen Gionta: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:32OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
- P2 15:55OTTChris Phillips: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:55NJDTuomo Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:55OTTChris Phillips: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:22OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:07NJDBryce Salvador: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 2:37OTTClarke MacArthur: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Ryder – Henrique9:27
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Elias – Clowe – Brunner10:12
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Jagr – Cammalleri – Zajac10:29
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Gionta – Josefson5:34
xG 0.13–0.46 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Gelinas2:56
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Gelinas – Merrill7:24
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky10:49
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris3:45
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Michalek – Smith – Lazar6:49
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone7:27
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Legwand – Neil – Hoffman9:23
xG 0.18–0.66 (21%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch6:44
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson13:18
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Wiercioch – Ceci6:40
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).