Sat, Oct 25, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Minnesota Wild 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 14 | 19 | 06 | 219 |
| MIN | 48 | 26 | 18 | 722 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:37MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Jason Pominville, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 8:16MINMikko KoivuAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 11:04TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Eric Brewer, Tyler Johnson · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 12:41MINErik HaulaGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P1 17:15MINJason ZuckerAssists: Matt Cooke, Ryan Carter · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
- P2 2:11MINZach PariseAssists: Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.14 xG1–5
- P2 11:12MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Thomas Vanek, Charlie Coyle · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–6
- P2 16:50TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Anton Stralman · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–6
- P3 13:44MINJason ZuckerSHAssists: Marco Scandella · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:08TBLBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:08MINMarco Scandella: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:34MINErik Haula: Holding2 min
- P3 0:04MINMatt Cooke: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:07TBLBrian Boyle: Charging2 min
- P3 12:26MINNate Prosser: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:47MINRyan Carter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Paquette – Drouin4:45
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Filppula – Stamkos – Paquette2:37
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Namestnikov – Marchessault3:40
xG 0.13–0.14 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Blunden7:57
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Garrison – Gudas9:48
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Garrison – Sustr5:21
xG 0.06–0.03 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brewer – Gudas6:46
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund14:07
xG 1.11–0.17 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Koivu – Vanek – Coyle13:35
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 8–14goals 2–1
- Cooke – Carter – Zucker6:31
xG 0.04–0.13 (25%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Haula – Niederreiter – Fontaine8:38
xG 0.17–0.33 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin15:49
xG 0.75–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon9:48
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 6–8goals 2–1
- Prosser – Dumba5:58
xG 0.03–0.01 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).