Mon, Oct 27, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 0, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 07 | 012 | 029 |
| EDM | 17 | 15 | 17 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:41EDMBenoit PouliotGWGAssists: Mark Arcobello · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 6:33EDMNail YakupovAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Mark Fayne · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 17:42EDMTaylor HallENAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Joensuu · Backhand, 0.67 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:20MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:21MTLBrandon Prust: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 5:56EDMJesse Joensuu: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:21EDMMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:31MTLDavid Desharnais: High sticking2 min
- P1 0:00MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:58EDMJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:49MTLAlexei Emelin: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:25MTLDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:43EDMMartin Marincin: Illegal stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:44
xG 1.77–0.15 (92%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Prust – Bourque – Eller2:54
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Parenteau – Galchenyuk7:34
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Moen – Prust5:42
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Gilbert10:53
xG 1.52–0.21 (88%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Subban – Beaulieu2:41
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Weaver – Beaulieu5:33
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Purcell – Perron – Draisaitl4:57
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins10:32
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu8:10
xG 0.06–0.57 (9%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Arcobello – Yakupov6:56
xG 0.25–1.53 (14%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Hunt11:02
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Fayne – Marincin13:13
xG 0.16–0.65 (19%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Ference – Petry13:14
xG 0.79–1.73 (31%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).