Tue, Oct 28, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Minnesota Wild 4, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 113 | 011 | 318 | 442 |
| BOS | 110 | 210 | 08 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 18:23BOSSeth GriffithAssists: David Krejci, Zach Trotman · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 5:23BOSSeth GriffithAssists: Gregory Campbell, Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 16:59BOSMilan LucicPPAssists: Torey Krug, Seth Griffith · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 4:21MINZach PariseAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 6:34MINJustin FontaineAssists: Ryan Carter, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–3
- P3 14:07MINMarco ScandellaGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:19BOSDennis Seidenberg: Holding2 min
- P1 19:09MINJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:25MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:49BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
- P3 9:03BOSSeth Griffith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:03MINNiklas Backstrom: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Coyle12:22
xG 0.80–0.34 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Cooke – Carter – Fontaine6:19
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund12:56
xG 0.81–0.48 (63%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Vanek – Brodziak – Niederreiter8:13
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:03
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Scandella – Dumba8:10
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Falk – Prosser2:48
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:30
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Krejci – Lucic – Griffith12:14
xG 0.51–0.71 (42%)attempts 14–18goals 1–2
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith11:04
xG 0.19–0.46 (30%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Gagne – Campbell – Paille7:23
xG 0.21–1.08 (16%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Trotman2:51
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Krug3:36
xG 0.06–0.11 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bartkowski – Trotman5:32
xG 0.30–0.69 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).