Tue, Oct 28, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 312 | 111 | 430 |
| NYI | 19 | 25 | 07 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Kyle Okposo · Tip-in, 0.34 xG0–1
- P2 1:14WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Bryan Little, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–1
- P2 4:06WPGPaul PostmaPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 11:42WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Mark Stuart, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 14:28NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.54 xG3–2
- P2 15:52NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 3:31WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:02WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:04WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:21WPGPaul Postma: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:21NYIJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:11NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:11WPGDustin Byfuglien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:24NYINikolay Kulemin: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 0:24NYINikolay Kulemin: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 10:24NYIMatt Martin: Embellishment2 min
- P2 10:24WPGJim Slater: Holding2 min
- P2 13:29WPGMark Scheifele: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:29NYIBrian Strait: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:29WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:56WPGPaul Postma: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele10:17
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Slater – Galiardi – Halischuk3:50
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik10:42
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Postma12:16
xG 0.67–0.55 (55%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Pardy – Clitsome3:50
xG 0.34–0.26 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba10:11
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabovski – Kulemin3:35
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas4:48
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Clutterbuck2:10
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Tavares – Conacher10:51
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – de Haan12:11
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey15:21
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:03
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).