Tue, Oct 28, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Los Angeles Kings 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 114 | 010 | 115 | 01 | 240 |
| PHI | 220 | 07 | 014 | 12 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:24PHIMichael RafflAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 13:08LAKTyler ToffoliSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:16PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Jakub Voracek, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 5:01LAKMike RichardsAssists: Drew Doughty, Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
- OT 2:36PHIBrayden SchennGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:14LAKMike Richards: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:34LAKJordan Nolan: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:34PHIWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min
- P2 1:09PHINick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:36LAKJonathan Quick: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Clifford10:26
xG 0.66–0.20 (77%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson11:11
xG 0.56–0.47 (55%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff2:00
xG 0.17–0.20 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – King12:58
xG 1.40–1.52 (48%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty3:26
xG 0.83–0.43 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Doughty16:40
xG 0.85–0.72 (54%)attempts 22–18goals 0–1
- Martinez – McNabb2:28
xG 0.48–0.35 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Bellemare10:05
xG 0.56–0.18 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl12:43
xG 1.01–0.91 (53%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier10:52
xG 0.21–0.73 (22%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Akeson5:59
xG 0.46–1.12 (29%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Del Zotto2:37
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann14:50
xG 1.18–1.15 (51%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto5:46
xG 0.38–0.41 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).