Tue, Oct 28, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 25 | 06 | 319 |
| PIT | 19 | 414 | 310 | 833 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:09NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Travis Zajac, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 7:17PITBlake ComeauAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 2:12NJDJacob JosefsonSHAssists: Stephen Gionta · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 5:14NJDTuomo RuutuAssists: Stephen Gionta, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–1
- P2 8:56PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 12:42PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Simon Despres · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P2 17:35PITCraig AdamsGWGAssists: Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P2 18:49PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Simon Despres · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–5
- P3 5:29PITPascal DupuisPPAssists: Steve Downie, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–6
- P3 13:47PITSteve DowniePPAssists: Blake Comeau, Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–7
- P3 16:40PITSidney CrosbyUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG3–8
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:29PITSteve Downie: Holding2 min
- P1 18:43PITSimon Despres: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:50NJDTravis Zajac: Holding2 min
- P2 7:21NJDDamon Severson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:45NJDReid Boucher: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:28PITCraig Adams: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:41NJDBryce Salvador: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:39NJDTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:50NJDMichael Ryder: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
- P3 17:04NJDMichael Ryder: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Gionta – Josefson4:01
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Ryder – Josefson – Boucher2:52
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Zajac – Gionta2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Ryder – Henrique – Boucher5:40
xG 0.03–0.14 (16%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson10:53
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Gelinas – Severson3:08
xG 0.09–0.03 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Gelinas3:08
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist11:05
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 13–2goals 3–0
- Downie – Sutter – Spaling6:17
xG 0.27–0.16 (64%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Adams – Goc – Sill5:52
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Malkin – Comeau7:26
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Ehrhoff9:33
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Despres5:53
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Martin4:23
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).