Tue, Oct 28, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 04 | 04 | 02 | 010 |
| TOR | 017 | 112 | 38 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:10TORTyler BozakPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 4:18TORPhil KesselAssists: Mike Santorelli · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 5:18TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Morgan Rielly, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 9:17TORJake GardinerAssists: Daniel Winnik, Leo Komarov · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG0–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:19TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P1 12:28BUFAndrej Meszaros: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:03BUFDrew Stafford: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:26BUFDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:03BUFAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min
- P2 18:31BUFMarcus Foligno: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:09BUFChris Stewart: Elbowing2 min
- P3 13:19TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:19BUFCody McCormick: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:19TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:19BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:03TORStephane Robidas: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Moulson – Stewart – Ennis10:07
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Girgensons9:49
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- McCormick – Deslauriers – Reinhart6:28
xG 0.06–0.70 (8%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Stafford – Mitchell – Hodgson9:05
xG 0.04–0.79 (5%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Meszaros – Weber11:49
xG 0.11–0.38 (23%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
- Gorges – Myers13:45
xG 0.21–0.69 (23%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Benoit – Ristolainen15:22
xG 0.05–1.43 (4%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Kadri10:34
xG 1.55–0.03 (98%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Clarkson – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:58
xG 0.28–0.07 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Winnik – Komarov10:12
xG 0.05–0.03 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Frattin – Holland – Panik8:16
xG 0.01–0.22 (6%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly14:32
xG 1.46–0.03 (98%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Franson11:25
xG 0.31–0.03 (90%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Robidas – Gardiner12:17
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).