Tue, Oct 28, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 123 | 018 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 351 |
| COL | 08 | 19 | 112 | 04 | 0 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:23SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Mirco Mueller, Joe Thornton · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 13:24COLAlex TanguaySHAssists: Erik Johnson, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 3:04COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 5:03SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Justin Braun, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SJS Patrick Marleau scored
- 2. COL Alex Tanguay stopped
- 3. SJS Joe Pavelski scored
- 4. COL Matt Duchene stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:24SJSMatt Nieto: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:18COLRyan O'Reilly: Interference2 min
- P2 2:15SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P2 12:26COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:54COLGabriel Landeskog: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:36COLZach Redmond: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:29SJSBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:29SJSMirco Mueller: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:29COLJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:29COLMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
- OT 3:55SJSPatrick Marleau: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl11:12
xG 2.33–0.31 (88%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Sheppard – Nieto – Tierney9:49
xG 0.61–0.03 (95%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels10:16
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Burish – Desjardins – McGinn6:47
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Mueller14:16
xG 1.81–0.10 (95%)attempts 19–4goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Braun16:31
xG 1.68–0.44 (79%)attempts 25–19goals 1–0
- Hannan – Demers11:49
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Duchene – Landeskog5:27
xG 0.30–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Talbot – Mitchell2:26
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Iginla – McGinn – MacKinnon3:02
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Talbot – McGinn – MacKinnon3:42
xG 0.05–0.14 (28%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Barrie2:49
xG 0.04–0.08 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Holden – Redmond2:13
xG 0.02–0.17 (10%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Holden9:57
xG 0.09–0.73 (11%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).