Tue, Oct 28, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Montréal Canadiens 2, Calgary Flames 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 15 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 219 |
| CGY | 09 | 116 | 012 | 01 | 0 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:09CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 12:48MTLTom GilbertUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CGY Jiri Hudler stopped
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 3. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 4. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 5. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 6. MTL PA Parenteau scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:50CGYJoe Colborne: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 6:21MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P1 7:36MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:35CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P1 15:16MTLTom Gilbert: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:19CGYJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:19MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:26CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:39MTLMax Pacioretty: Interference2 min
- P2 13:39CGYMark Giordano: Embellishment2 min
- P2 16:01MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:32MTLJarred Tinordi: Kneeing2 min
- P3 14:54MTLPA Parenteau: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:47MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Eller – Weise2:27
xG 0.22–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Moen – Prust2:49
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Prust – Bourque – Weise2:00
xG 0.02–0.06 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Parenteau – Galchenyuk10:22
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Markov – Weaver2:08
xG 0.07–0.04 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Weaver – Tinordi8:26
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Markov – Gilbert10:35
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Jones – Glencross5:35
xG 0.69–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Byron – Backlund – Gaudreau3:22
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hudler – Byron – Monahan2:36
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Colborne – Monahan3:56
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Smid6:52
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie12:56
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell12:45
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).